How to pick a winner at the Grand National

The weights have been published for the Grand National and, given the great job the handicapper has done in giving the majority of the field a realistic chance at the weights, the betting is quite open, writes Kevin Morley.

The favourite depends on which bookmaker’s prices you’re looking at but, seemingly, the three most fancied horses in the early exchanges are Ballabriggs, Niche Market and The Midnight Club - all of which are housed with trainers who are good with chasers.

Niche Market: high enough mark

  PICTURE: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos) 

Willie Mullins, trainer of The Midnight Club, has won the race before with Hedgehunter in 2005, while Donald McCain’s (Ballabriggs) father Ginger has a well-known love affair with the race.

Ginger McCain last landed the race in 2004, courtesy of Amberleigh House, while he also managed to win the National three times in the 1970s with Red Rum.

However, these two fall down on a key trend that has applied to all of the last ten winners (don’t forget to check the National trends as they’re usually a decent guide to pinpointing the winner) as neither has won a Listed or Gradedchase in their career.

Niche Market qualifies on that front, having won a Listed Chase at Ascot in 2008, and his price shortened after Paul Nicholls declared him his best chance of winning the 4m4f contest.

Yet, while the champion trainer has achieved more than most, particularly in Grade 1 chases, he has yet to win the National.

Silver By Nature: fancied by many

  PICTURE: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos) 

The fact it is a handicap is probably why Nicholls has struggled to succeed as for all expertise at keeping long distance chasers constantly churning out top-class performances, the race falls to the best-treated horse as opposed to the best horse.

Nicholls isn’t the best at protecting a handicap mark and Niche Market is high enough for what he has achieved.

The favoured age range of nine to 11 can rule out quite a few horses relatively fancied in the betting – Synchronised, Calgary Bay, What A Friend, Majestic Concorde, Tricky Trickster and Becauseicouldntsee are eight-year-olds, while Hello Bud is too old at 13, as is 2008 winner Comply Or Die at 12.

Silver By Nature will be fancied by many. He fits the trends and his win in the National Trial at Haydock after the weights were announced means he will beon a good mark. However, he is a confirmed mudlark, as all seven of his career victories have come on soft or heavy ground.

Unless you can be sure the ground will be testing, it’s best to operate on the assumption that the going will be good, as is usually the case in April. That would make the 16-1 quote on the Lucinda Russell-trained grey look a bit short.

State Of Play: the best-treated?

  PICTURE: Getty Images  

Backstage would have been interesting had he won a Listed or Graded chase, as he fits all the other trends.

Gordon Elliott won the race in 2007 with Silver Birch and has looked after Backstage’s mark for quite some time. Only an eight-year-old last year, he was still going well enough in last year’s race when he was hampered and unseated his rider at the 20th.

The two that interest me most at this stage are last year’s third and fourth, State Of Play (25-1) and Big Fella Thanks (20-1).

Big FellaThanks fits the trends now he is a nine-year-old and may have strengthened up a bit since last year, when he weakened in the closing stages. With Paul Nicholls last term, he is now trained by Ferdy Murphy who is an expert at laying one out for a valuable handicap.

State Of Play is arguably the best-treated horse in the race off 10st 6lb. The 2006 Hennessy winner has placed in the last two runnings of the race and this is likely to be his last chance at age 11.

This would be a good way for Evan Williams to cap his best-ever season in terms of total winners.

Finally, don’t discount last year’s victor Don’t Push It. Despite being allotted top weight, he isn’t without a chance and his odds are sure to tumble if Tony McCoy confirms he will take theride again.